There is no shortage of post-election speculation about the causes of Kamala Harris’ loss as Democrats wring hands and panic over the future of the party. It is generally an overreaction.

Trump’s success was not the landslide he has claimed; many of his state wins were within the margin of error from the pre-election polling that showed a close race and do not amount to a reversal of the roughly even divide of the voting populace. Additionally, looking down-ballot to state candidates and responses to ballot initiatives, it is clear that Republicans will still have a very slender majority in the House and on many policy-related issues — from abortion to minimum wage — voters across the country favored positions typically supported by Democrats and opposed by the president-elect and his party.

This election also repeats a general pattern of incumbents losing when voters voice disapproval of the country’s direction, regardless of what economic indicators reveal about the direction of inflation and employment.

Perhaps most importantly, Harris’ loss was part of a general international pattern. Among industrialized democracies and in the aftermath of the chaos brought on by COVID, every party in power lost in recent elections. Even though economies, led by the United States, have begun to recover from the disruptions caused by the historic pandemic, voters blame the party in power for the pocketbook impact of high inflation and supply chain interruptions.

It may be little solace, but compared to other countries Harris lost by a slimmer margin.

If not a catastrophic loss, the Democratic Party still has work to do to reestablish the coalition that produced electoral successes in recent years. Working class, non-college-educated voters have been shifting to the right over the past several cycles. The margins of support from Latino and Black voters have been shrinking. While women still favored Harris in this election, they did so by smaller percentages than in the previous presidential contest.

Democrats have nothing to compete with the right-wing social media empire, from Fox News to X, that offers sustained and focused misinformation. Many Americans have neither the time nor inclination to assess the lies and distortions that they are fed every day on the internet and cable programs.

There will be several brakes on Trump’s most radical projects, such as mass deportations and dismantling federal agencies. Republicans in the House who won in their districts by small margins will be concerned about facing voters in just two years. Likewise, Republicans in the Senate will have to defend far more seats in the next election than Democrats and so will be more sensitive to the state-level impact of Trump’s plans.

Given the historical pattern of midterm losses for the party in power, politicians will be reluctant to embrace extreme elements in Trump’s agenda such as across-the-board tariffs. We may already be seeing some of this resistance in the decision of Republicans in the Senate to reject Trump’s preferred candidate for speaker, and in the disquiet over his absurd Cabinet nominations of completely unqualified political hacks and ideologues.

Trump can still do immeasurable damage both domestically and internationally, but he will have a hard time being the dictator of his dreams.

What is of most concern due to the scale of the harm is the loss of initiative in combating climate change.

The time has already passed for us to avoid the impact of continued reliance on fossil fuels, and Trump will certainly take steps to reverse the modest corrections advanced as part of the Inflation Reduction Act. Storms and extremes of drought and floods will worsen as the earth continues to warm.

Nature doesn’t have time to wait for the next turn of the political pendulum. This should not be a partisan issue — the world’s entire population will suffer as a direct result of losing the leadership of the United States on climate issues.

Donald Joralemon, emeritus professor at Smith College, lives in Conway.